Tuesday, October 1, 2024

War Begins: Iranian Ballistic Missiles Rain Down On Israel

Update(1241ET): Bombs away... Israel's military in a breaking news wire says rockets have been fired from Iran at Israel. The IDF says it has engaged its Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 anti-air defense missiles. CNN has confirmed that Iranian missiles have made impact on Tel Aviv. Jordan and Iraq have shut their airspace. President Biden has ordered US military assets in the region to shoot down inbound Iranian missiles, according to the White House.

The White House says it has convened an emergency meeting with VP Harris and national security teams. Warning alarms from Israel's home front command are currently sounding in Jerusalem and elsewhere. Israel getting pounded:

Skies over Tel Aviv currently:

Israeli Army Radio says Iran has launched over 100 ballistic missiles at Israel. Axios: "The Israeli security cabinet is convened at the government bunker near Jerusalem, Israeli officials said." The IDF has confirmed that there were some ground strikes. FOX: Israel getting hit with the largest ballistic missile attack in history.

Iran has announce this is the 'retaliation' for the killing of Nasrallah and Hamas' Haniyeh. Lots of intercepts but clearly many projectiles got through and impacted targets on the ground:

LIVE FEED of situation inside Israel:

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIFyRRpVAxQ

Iranian state media has confirmed that an initial salvo has been sent, publishing video of missiles exiting Iranian airspace:

More from Iranian state footage of the launches:

An Israeli official has said that Iran will face a "harsh" response for the missile attack, according to KANN News.

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Update(1150ET): There have been constant official leaks and rumors speculating over what's said to be an imminent Iranian response to the Friday killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah by Israeli airstrikes on Beirut last Friday.

Senior White House and defense officials say a major ballistic missile attack on Israel could come in the next 12 hours, and that military and government sites are expected to be targeted. The White House is citing intelligence which shows Iran is preparing something big.

An unnamed US official has also said to Reuters that "A supposedly imminent missile attack on Israel by Iran could be as big or bigger than the one it carried out in April if it goes ahead." Israel's military has predicted that any new missile attack from Iran is expected to be "widespread".

"The official said the assessment was based on initial indications and therefore was not certain," the same report noted. The US is "actively" preparing to support Israel as it did with last April's missile and drone attack from Iran. That had included US fighter jets shooting down inbound drones. Israeli and US defense chiefs - Gallant and Austin - have spoken on Tuesday. They said they discussed a joint preparation to repel the Iranian attack.

It must be remembered that all of this is coming from US and Israeli sources, while Iranian media and sources have not offered any level of confirmation of a supposed imminent attack on Israel.

WTI crude jumped 4% on Tuesday morning upon the array of rumors, and appears continuing to push higher amid the boiling Mideast tensions and news of conflict spreading...

* * *

Axios is reporting that the White House has intelligence saying Iran imminently plans to carry out a missile attack on Israel in retaliation for the Friday killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. 

A senior White House has said, "The United States has indications that Iran is preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel."

"We are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack. A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran," the official continued. Crude prices immediately responded to the headline...

Gold is also bid...

It seems the White House is prepared to defend Israeli militarily, though there has been no official authorization in Congress (much less a debate).

The Pentagon on Monday confirmed that it is sending a "few thousand additional troops" to the Middle East to be on standby if needed to defend Israel from a broader attack. This is widely being seen as preparation for war against Iran, if needed.

This is to include the new deployments of squadrons of F-15, F-16, F-22, and A-10 fighter jets along with assisting personnel. It was only the day prior that President Biden was asked if he would be sending more troops to the Middle East. He replied: "No."

Meanwhile, although the major US equity indices are tanking...

...there are some 'winners':

LOCKHEED, NORTHROP SHARES TOUCH SESSION HIGHS

Israel's military spokesman Daniel Hagari says the IDF has yet to identify any aerial threat from Iran. "Any Iranian attack on Israel would have repercussions," the statement said. The IDF spokesman further said, "A short while ago our partners in the USA informed us that they detect Iran's preparations to fire missiles at Israel in the near future."

Secretary Blinken in the US has said his office is "tracking events in the Middle East very carefully and is committed to defending Israel."

Commenting on the situation, Fernando Ferreira, director of geopolitical risk service at the Rapidan Energy Group, said:

"Tehran is embarrassed and hardliners have argued that the failure to respond to Israel’s assassination of Hamas chief Haniyeh in Tehran only emboldened Jerusalem. At the same time, they understand that Israel will respond with overwhelming force to any attack, and that there’s nothing they can do to protect sensitive economic, political, or military targets. Iran may try to thread the needle again with an air punch like it did in April, hoping for a limited Israeli response. That seems like wishful thinking, as Jerusalem is undeterred and likely to take three-eyes-for-an-eye."

More on speculation over the Islamic Republic's strike planning via Axios: Western source familiar with the details: Iran is expected to attack Israel with high-speed missiles and not with drones or cruise missiles that allow a long preparation time for defense and interception.

And three Israeli officials quoted anonymously by the NYT have described they anticipate that Tehran will target three Israeli air bases, and "an intelligence headquarters north of Tel Aviv." Some of these locations have reportedly already been evacuated.

developing...

 

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