From ZeroHedge:
With the October jobs report already expected to be a big drop from September's 336K, as consensus expected a 180K print (below the whisper number of 211K), moments ago the BLS confirmed that last month's surge was nothing but a Bidenomics mirage and as we warned in our preview, the October print indeed came "crashing down to earth", sliding to 150K, a drop of more than 50% from the original Sept print, and the second lowest since 2022!
As usual, historical data was revised massively lower, with the jobs change for August revised down by 62,000, from +227,000 to +165,000, and the change for September was revised down by 39,000, from +336,000 to +297,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 101,000 lower than previously reported. In total, 8 of the past 8 months have been revised sharply lower in what only idiots can not see is clearly mandated political propaganda designed to make the economy look stronger at first glance then quietly revise the growth away.
Of course, the downward revisions are nowhere near done: as Pantheon Macro writes, "the jobs number likely will be revised down, continuing the pattern of downward revisions" as "the unemployment rate is on course to breach the 4.0% mark soon" tripping the recession redline.
The scariest number however did not come from the Establishment survey at all, but rather from the Household survey, where the number of employed workers plunged by 348K, the biggest drop since the covid lockdowns, This means that the US is already in recession.
To get a sense of just how manipulate the Establishment survey is, look no further than the divergence with the Household survey. It is safe to say that never in US history have payroll numbers been manipulated more.
More HERE.
No comments:
Post a Comment