Tuesday, July 23, 2024

Stumbling Out Of The Gate: Harris Starts Race Down 9 Points, Even Worse Than Biden

Democrats' enjoyment of the Kamala Harris campaign's "new car smell" may prove short-lived, as a brand new poll shows the vice president trailing former President Trump by a whopping 11 points among likely voters -- matching up even worse than President Biden, who trailed by 10. 

The Forbes/HarrisX survey was conducted July 19-21 -- that's after the Republican convention but before Biden was forced to withdraw from the race.   

“Kamala Harris starts her 2024 battle behind Trump, who is enjoying a strong post-convention bump," said HarrisX chief pollster Dritan Nesho.

“If the polls don’t start to close and show better traction for her, Biden’s decision to step aside for Harris may be a case of ‘too similar, too late.’ That said, Vice President Harris alleviates concerns among the democratic base and is better able to sway undecided independents and suburban women, showing some promise.”

In an ominous note for the Harris campaign, aside from her worse margin against Trump, in her head-to-head matchup, fewer voters were undecided than they were in a Biden-Trump scenario. Among likely voters, Trump led Biden 49%-39% with 12% undecided. However, versus Harris, Trump led 51%-40%, with 9% undecided.  

"Democrats are jumping out of the frying pan into the fire," Trump campaign senior advisor Jason Miller told Fox News. "They may have gotten rid of one problem with Joe Biden, but they've inherited a whole new problem with Kamala Harris." 

Continuing a well-established trend, Harris's job-approval rating is as bad as Biden's: both scored a dismal 38% approval. She did a little better than Biden among younger voters, with 42% of those between age 18 and 34 approving of her performance, compared to 36% for Biden. 

So far, there are few single-state polls gauging a Trump-Harris contest, and none that were taken since she became the presumptive nominee. While the numbers are bound to change after Americans are subjected to a Harris-friendly media blitz, they still give some insight into where she's starting from: 

  • An Atlanta-Journal Constitution poll has Trump winning Georgia by 4.6% over Harris, compared to 3.5% over Biden.
  • In a result that shows Democrats clearly on the defensive on the 2024 chessboard, a New Hampshire Journal poll has Trump up 0.9% in Granite State -- where the GOP hasn't won in 24 years.
  • In a glimmer of hope for Democrats, Harris is doing better than Biden in Pennsylvania, but still trails Trump in the pivotal state by 2%.
  • Conversely, Harris is polling worse than Biden in Nevada, losing to Trump by 10%. 

The results are sure to grind the gears of the many Democratic mega-donors who favored a "mini-primary" to select Biden's replacement atop the 2024 ticket, rather than simply coronating Harris, a demonstrably terrible candidate who didn't even make it to the Iowa caucuses in 2020.

 

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