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The Real Reason Why The Fed Isn't Cutting Interest Rates

This article was written by Brandon Smith and originally published at Alt-Market.com

In an article published in September 2015 titled 'The Real Reason Why The Fed Will Raise Interest Rates' I outlined a kind of economic war game, a predictive theory in which the Federal Reserve would hike rates into clear economic weakness in order to deliberately cause the implosion of the vast financial bubble they had created through several years of quantitative easing. At that time this theory received a lot of opposition. Nearly everyone in the mainstream and in the alternative media argued that the Fed was going to shift to NIRP (negative interest rates), in order to continue propping up the system. The idea that the Fed would actually raise rates and cause an engineered crash after propping up the system for so long was treated as outlandish.

Of course, this is exactly what happened. Within a year the Fed had started to tighten policy instead of extending stimulus measures. The denial that this was happening was so strong that many analysts claimed the Fed was simply “pretending” to tighten when they were actually still stimulating. Yet, this claim turned out to be incorrect; nearly every sector of the economy began an immediate and steep decline the moment the Fed launched interest rate hikes and cut its balance sheet. The evidence was mounting that yes, the central bank was not just pretending to tighten – it was actually strangling liquidity and the mirage of economic recovery was quickly fading.

To this day and despite all the evidence to the contrary some people still argue that the fed is either not tightening, or will reverse on tightening measures very soon. In fact, every month since last November there has been a chorus of voices saying that “this is the month” that the Fed will return to easing and possibly QE4. And, every month they have been wrong. This includes this past month of June, when so many people were so certain that a Fed interest rate cut was baked into the cake.

In my article 'The Federal Reserve's Controlled Demolition Of The Economy Is Almost Complete', published in March, I predicted that the Fed would continue to hold interest rates steady for many months to come and that Fed language of “accommodation” and “patience” was a head-fake to keep the investment world tied up in stock markets as every other major indicator showed a recession was upon us. Again, this is exactly what has happened.

Once the Fed raised rates to their neutral rate of inflation (something they had not done for decades) the fate of the US economy was sealed. To be fair, the real rate of inflation is much higher than the Fed admits, but the point remains that the US economy as it stands today cannot handle even moderately higher rates. With corporate and consumer debt at historic highs not seen since 2007 just before the credit crash, any interest pressure above zero is going to destroy the fragile economic bubble.

Some people claim that the Fed is completely unaware of this situation and is fumbling in the dark. But this is not true. In 2012 Jerome Powell outlined exactly what would happen if the Fed began tightening policy in the October minutes of the Fed meeting. Powell KNEW that higher rates and balance sheet cuts would cause the kind of crash which is now happening; but as soon as he became the Fed chair in 2018 he launched tightening measures anyway.

Whether you are for or against Fed tightening measures is truly meaningless.  The point remains that the Fed created the Everything Bubble, and now they are crashing the Everything Bubble and they know they are doing it.

So, where do we go from here? Has the Fed done all the damage it needs to do to ensure a crash? Is all this talk of accommodation actually real this time? Will they cut interest rates soon in order to prop up the system longer.  I continue to predict the Fed will not be cutting interest rates or ending balance sheet cuts until there is a blatant breakdown, or a major distraction event. And by “breakdown” I am referring to public perception of the economy waking up to the reality of the crash.

It is important to remember that the US economy has been in negative territory for the past 10 years. It has been hanging by three thin threads – the first being Fed stimulus (which has now been taken away – sorry skeptics but this is a fact), the second being the dollar's world reserve status, and the third being public perception of recovery. The central bankers are now relying heavily on the manipulation of public perception in order to keep certain sectors (like stock markets) afloat for a little while longer. What is the specific goal in this? It's hard to say. However, the move to trick the investment community into making far reaching assumptions has some advantages.

Stock markets are absolutely useless as an economic indicator because they lag far behind real financial conditions.  Stocks fall after every other fundamental indicator has already turned negative and the crash is already at the public's doorstep.  However, they do serve one purpose; stock prices can be exploited to give the population a false sense of economic health, leaving them unprepared and vulnerable to the consequences of a downturn.  Most Americans do not track economic data beyond stocks and employment, which are both highly manipulated points of reference.

Stocks remain levitated on two factors:  Massive stimulus from China since December, and blind hope from the investment world that the Fed is going to bring back the punch bowl and pump out stimulus again. Minor language changes to Fed statements are now hyped as dominant indicators that the Fed is about to flood the markets with liquidity; yet other language indicators showing the opposite are ignored. With so much capital lured into stocks on the “certainty” of Fed rate cuts or stimulus – I ask, what would happen if the Fed DOES NOT fulfill growing market expectations?

On June 19th just after the Fed meeting I noted that there was little chance of of a rate cut in July, and recent statements from Powell and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard support this argument.
After the June meeting, many in the investment world priced in a 100% chance of an interest rate cut in July. Why did they do this after being wrong every month for the past several months? I still can't figure out what the source of this assumption is. Nowhere in the Fed's minutes or in post meeting statements has the Fed indicated a cut in July. The reality is that the last Fed meeting showed NO CUTS until the end of 2020. This does not necessarily mean the Fed will hold rates until that time, but there is no evidence to support the notion that they will cut in July.

Perhaps I am wrong and the Fed will follow assumptions this time instead of assumptions following the Fed. I haven't been wrong on Fed policy changes yet, but my point is, there is no evidence that they will cut next month, only expectation based on hearsay.

The Fed continues to lie about economic expansion, claiming a strong recovery or improving fundamentals when all the data shows economic decline; from bond yields to housing sales to housing prices to auto markets to manufacturing to shipping and freight to retail closures to weakening job prints, etc. At the same time we are witnessing inflationary pressures in necessities like food, fuel and rental housing. It's a stagflationary mess.

Incessant reporting of strong economic health and the defiant dismissal of declines is not the behavior of a Fed that is about to capitulate on tightening. Yet, the investment community has been all-in on a rate cut for months. When the rate cuts don't come, they then assume that the past month was close, and that the next month is a sure thing. It's truly bizarre.

As long as the Fed holds rates near the neutral rate of inflation and continues to cut assets from its balance sheet, flooding the economy with treasuries, mortgage backed securities and toxic assets, the decline of multiple sectors is assured. There may come a point in which the Fed has done all the damage it needs to do to accelerate the crash, allowing them to then pull back on tightening, but we have not reached that point yet. As I have noted in past articles, the Fed has done all this before.

Creating enormous financial bubbles and then deliberately popping them is a classic central bank maneuver. Each time, they claim they were “unaware” of what was happening, then years later admit outright that they knew what was happening; from Alan Greenspan admitting that the Fed was well aware of the bubble that led to the crash of 2008, to Ben Bernanke openly admitting that the Fed had caused the Great Depression by tightening into economic weakness in the 1930's.

Tightening liquidity and policy conditions into economic weakness is what central banks do to trigger chaos. But why would the Fed deliberately initiate a controlled demolition of the US economy? The bottom line is central banks are tools of the globalist elite. They are not as autonomous as they seem. No, the Fed does not answer to the US president, but it does answer to the Bank for International Settlements, as do all other major central banks in the world.

The economic disasters they create are then used as leverage to consolidate financial wealth as well as control of hard assets into the hands of these elitists. Crisis events are also used to consolidate power over the people and to centralize governance on a global scale. The Fed is nothing more than a mechanism used to help achieve this agenda.

Alternative economists should abandon any notion that Donald Trump will interfere with this plan. Trump has been under the thumb of the globalists ever since Rothschild banking agent Wilber Ross bailed him out of his debt obligations in the Taj Mahal casino in the 1990's. Wilber Ross is now Trump's Commerce Secretary, standing over his shoulder along with a large crew of other elites in Trump's cabinet. This would explain why Trump vehemently criticized the Fed for inflating the Everything Bubble under the Obama administration through artificially low interest rates during his campaign, and then suddenly pulled a full reversal once he was in the White House and claimed his administration was the reason for all time highs in stock markets.

Trump has also stated time and time again he has no intention of trying to unseat Jerome Powell (he did it again just this week), and frankly he has no power to do so anyway.  His "battle" with Powell is a farce.

The Fed is a private entity, and as Alan Greenspan once openly admitted, it answers to no one. Trump has attached his administration so completely to the economic bubble that when it completely collapses he and his conservative followers will inevitable be blamed and it is my belief that he is doing exactly as he has been told to do by the banking cabal.

This leaves one final question – What is the Fed waiting for? Why not crash everything including stocks right now? Why continue to head fake investors on rate cuts and accommodation? As I noted in my recent article 'Globalists Only Need One More Major Event To Finish Sabotaging The Economy', the elites need a distraction that would satisfy the public's search for a rationale after the consequences of the crash finally hit them. The accelerating trade war is very useful for this, but it is not enough. The globalists need something else.

This may come in the form of a shooting war, possibly with Iran. It may come in the form of a “No Deal Brexit” in October (and I continue to predict this is an intended event). It may also come in the form of a surprise retaliation from US trading partners, such as a dump of US treasuries or the dollar as the world reserve currency. This is what the globalists are waiting for.

Once such an event takes place, or perhaps just before the event, the Fed may finally cut rates again, or stop its balance sheet dumps. It may not. Trump's trade war is leading towards price inflation, which could be used by the Fed as an excuse to keep interest rates steady or even hike them again. Nothing is written in stone except the primary agenda, which is: Inflate financial bubble through stimulus, implode financial bubble through tightening. Afterwards, the Fed has options. It can stimulate again as a non-solution, or do nothing. Either way, the crash is already a given and the Fed has no intention of stopping it.

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The Next Stage Of The Engineered Global Economic Reset Has Arrived

This article was written by Brandon Smith and originally published at Alt-Market.com

When discussing the fact that globalists often deliberately engineer economic crisis events, certain questions inevitably arise. The primary question being “Why would the elites ruin a system that is already working in their favor...?” The answer is in some ways complicated because there are multiple factors that motivate the globalists to do the things they do. However, before we get into explanations we have to understand that this kind of question is rooted in false assumptions, not logic.

The first assumption people make is that that current system is the ideal globalist system – it's not even close.

When studying globalist literature and white papers, from Aldous Huxley's Brave New World, to H.G. Wells' book The New World Order and his little known film Things To Come, to Manly P. Hall's collection of writings titled 'The All Seeing Eye', to Carol Quigley's Tragedy And Hope, to the Club Of Rome documents, to Zbigniew Brzezinski's Between Two Ages, to former UN Director Robert Muller's Good Morning World documents, to Henry Kissinger's Assembly Of A New World Order, to the IMF and UN's Agenda 2030, to nearly every document on globalization that is published by the Council on Foreign Relations, we see a rather blatant end goal described.

To summarize: For at least the past century the globalists have been pursuing a true one world system that is not covert, but overt. They want conscious public acceptance of a completely centralized global economic system, a single global currency, a one world government, and a one world religion (though that particular issue will require an entirely separate article).

To attain such a lofty and ultimately destructive goal, they would have to create continuous cycles of false prosperity followed by catastrophe. Meaning, great wars and engineered economic collapse are their primary tools to condition the masses to abandon their natural social and biological inclinations towards individualism and tribalism and embrace the collectivist philosophy. They created the current system as a means to an end. It is not their Utopian ideal; in fact, the current system was designed to fail. And, in that failure, the intended globalist “order” is meant to be introduced. The Hegelian Dialectic describes this strategy as Problem, Reaction, Solution.

This is the reality that many people just don't seem to grasp. Even if they are educated on the existence of the globalist agenda, they think the globalists are trying to protect the system that exists, or protect the so-called “deep state”. But this is a propaganda meme that does not describe the bigger picture. The big picture is at the same time much worse, and also more hopeful.

The truth is that the old world order of the past century is a sacrificial measure, like the booster stage of a rocket to space that falls away and burns up in the atmosphere once it is expended. If you do not accept the reality that the globalists destroy in order to create opportunities for gain, then you will never be able to get a handle on why current events are taking the shape they are.

Of course, in public discourse the elites have learned to temper their language and how they describe their agenda. Public knowledge, or at least general awareness of the “new world order” is growing, and so they are forced to introduce the idea of a vast societal and economic shift in a way that sounds less nefarious and is relatively marketable. They also have a tendency to hint at events or warn about disasters that are about to happen; disasters they are about to cause. Perhaps this is simply a way to insulate themselves from blame once the suffering starts.

The International Monetary Fund began spreading a meme a few years ago as a way to describe a global economic crash without actually saying the word “crash”. Managing Director Christine Lagarde and others started using the phrase “global economic reset” in reference to greater centralization of economic and monetary management, all in the wake of a kind of crisis that was left mostly ambiguous. What she was describing was simply another name for the new world order, but it was one of the first times we had seen a globalist official actually hint that the change or “reset” would be built on the ashes of the old world system, rather than simply built as an extension of it.

Lagarde's message was essentially this: “Collective” cooperation will not just be encouraged in the new order, it will be required — meaning, the collective cooperation of all nations toward the same geopolitical and economic framework. If this is not accomplished, great fiscal pain will be felt and “spillover” will result. Translation: Due to the forced interdependency of globalism, crisis in one country could cause a domino effect of crisis in other countries; therefore, all countries and their economic behavior must be managed by a central authority to prevent blundering governments or "rogue central banks" from upsetting the balance.

The IMF and the CFR also refer to this as the “new multilateralism”, or the “multipolar world order”.

I believe the next stage of the economic reset has now begun in 2018 and 2019. In this phase of the globalist created theater, we see the world being torn apart by the “non-cooperation” that Lagarde and the CFR warned us about in 2015. The trade war is swiftly becoming a world economic war drawing in multiple nations on either side. This scenario only benefits the globalists, as it provides perfect cover as they initiate a crash of the historically massive 'Everything Bubble' which they have spent the last ten years inflating just for this moment.

As I predicted in my article 'World War III Will Be An Economic War', published in April of 2018, the tariff conflict between the US and China has become an excellent catalyst for the global reset. In my article 'America Loses When The Trade War Becomes A Currency War', published in June of 2018, I stated:

“One question that needs to be addressed is how long the current trade war will last? Some people claim that economic hostilities will be short-lived, that foreign trading partners will quickly capitulate to the Trump administration’s demands and that any retaliation against tariffs will be meager and inconsequential. If this is the case and the trade war moves quickly, then I would agree — very little damage will be done to the U.S. economy beyond what has already been done by the Federal Reserve.

However, what if it doesn’t end quickly? What if the trade war drags on for the rest of Trump’s first term? What if it bleeds over into a second term or into the regime of a new president in 2020? This is exactly what I expect to happen, and the reason why I predict this will be the case rests on the opportunities such a drawn out trade war will provide for the globalists.”

The economic world has a very short attention span, but a year ago in the alternative media the trade war was being treated by Trump cheerleaders in particular as a novelty – a non-issue that would be resolved in a matter of a months with Trump victorious. Today, those same people are now vocal trade war fans, waving their pom-poms and screaming for more as they buy completely into the farce. Mentioning the fact that the trade war is only serving as a distraction so that the globalists can complete their economic reset agenda does not seem to phase them.

They usually make one of two arguments: Trump is an anti-globalist that is tearing down the “deep state” system and the trade war is part of his “4D chess game”. Or, the globalists don't have enough control over the current system to achieve the kind of “conspiracy” I describe here.

First, going by his associations alone, it is clear that Donald Trump is controlled opposition playing the role of “anti-globalist” while at the same time stacking his cabinet with the very same elites he is supposedly at war with. As I have outlined in numerous articles, Trump was bought off in the 1990's when he was saved from possible permanent bankruptcy by Rothschild banking agent Wilber Ross. Trump made Ross his Commerce Secretary as soon as he entered the White House, and Ross is one of the key figures in the developing trade war.

At this point I have to say that anyone arguing that Trump is “playing 4D chess” with the banking elites while he is surrounded by them on a daily basis must be clinically insane. Every economic and trade policy Trump has initiated in the past two years has served as a smokescreen for the globalists controlled demolition of the economy. As the reset continues in the midst of the trade war, it will be Trump and by extension all conservatives that get the blame. Trump is a pied piper of doom for conservative movements, which is why I have always said any attempts to impeach Trump (before the crash is completed) will fail. The globalists like him exactly where he is.

Second, there is a globalist controlled central bank in almost every nation in the world, including supposedly anti-globalist countries in the East like Russia and China. All of these central banks are coordinated through the Bank For International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. The globalists covertly dictate the economic policy of nearly the entire planet. They can easily create an economic collapse anytime they wish. This is a fact.

However, what they do not control is how elements of the public will react to their reset agenda. And this is where we find hope. They do not have their “new world order” yet, which is why they have to resort to elaborate theatrics and psychological operations. They know that an awake and aware segment of the population could annihilate them tomorrow with the right motivation, and so, they continue to distract us with a swarm of other concerns and calamities.

The purpose is to convince the masses to focus on all the wrong enemies while ignoring organized and psychopathic elites as the root of threat to humanity. We are supposed to hate the Russians, or hate the Chinese, or hate people on the left, or hate people on the right, and so it goes on. But these conflicts are just symptoms of a deeper disease. The great danger is that the focus on globalists as the virus will fade from public consciousness and conservative circles in particular as the trade war becomes a world war and economic collapse results in financial pain.

The reset is upon us. The narrative of the collapse is being written before our eyes. The end game rests not on the globalists, though, but proponents of liberty and sovereignty. Either we keep our crosshairs on the true enemy, or we get sucked into the maelstrom and forget who we are and why we are here. If the latter occurs, then the globalist reset will be assured.

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